Projecting the standings before a single game is even played is always a losing proposition. We’re doing it anyway, and it’s tougher than ever because of the parity throughout the league.
The Celtics lapped the field last year, but only five games separated seeds 4 through 10 in the West and only four separated 2 through 8 in the East. It’s going to be jam-packed in the middle again this season.
Given how thin the difference is between so many playoff teams, seeding will surely change this year. The 76ers and Grizzlies look like the biggest contenders to rise, while the Bucks and Nuggets could fall.
Here are predictions for all 10 playoff and Play-In teams for each conference, along with Finals and championship picks.
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NBA predictions 2024-25
Eastern Conference standings, playoff teams
- Boston Celtics
- New York Knicks
- Milwaukee Bucks
- Cleveland Cavaliers
- Philadelphia 76ers
- Indiana Pacers
- Orlando Magic*
- Miami Heat*
- Atlanta Hawks*
- Toronto Raptors*
*Play-In Tournament
The Celtics are still the best team in the East, but the gap between them and the field has shrunk. Kristaps Porzingis will miss the beginning of the season, and that might hurt them record-wise. He was their second-best player for large chunks of last year. They don’t need him to dominate the conference, though, as evidenced by last year’s championship run.
The Knicks looked like the best team in the league with O.G. Anunoby, going 20-3 with him in the lineup during the regular season. They doubled down on that strategy by acquiring Mikal Bridges, giving them another versatile defender and a third-shot creator to ease the pressure on Jalen Brunson. Karl-Anthony Towns is a four-time All-Star who gives them good shooting up and down the lineup. They’re a deep, well-coached team with star power up top. That is the same formula that the Celtics used last season.
The Sixers are the wild card in all of this. Joel Embiid was playing at a higher level than his MVP season before getting hurt, and the team couldn’t put the pieces together in time for the playoffs. That won’t be an issue this year because they’ve flipped most of their roster. Embiid, Tyrese Maxey and Paul George are the most talented Big Three in the East. And Daryl Morey is never afraid to make mid-season trades to make that group even better. They may not be a great regular season team given that they are planning on sitting Embiid and George out of most back-to-backs. But they have championship upside.
Those three are the true title contenders. Below them is a secondary tier of very good teams โ the Bucks, Cavs, Magic and Pacers.
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Milwaukee should be better with Doc Rivers and Damian Lillard more prepared for training camp, and Giannis Antetokounmpo is still a top-five player in the league. The problem is Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez are well into their decline, and the Bucks need them to be big contributors.
The Cavs showed they are capable of playing like the best team in the East through stretches of last year, but they weren’t consistent. They’re running back the same roster and hoping a coaching change in Kenny Atkinson can be the difference. That’s not a bad bet given the success Atkinson had previously and the clear talent on the roster.
Indiana had the best offense in NBA history for a chunk of last season, and now it gets a full year of Pascal Siakam. Will teams be more prepared for the Pacers’ intense pace, similar to what happened to the Kings last year?
Orlando is a good young team on the rise with terrific depth and tenacious defenders. Adding Kentavious Caldwell-Pope will help the Magic’s shooting, but they still need more advantage creators.
There’s a substantial drop-off after that tier of teams. Can the Heat be better with a full year of Terry Rozier? The Hawks looked about the same in games without Dejounte Murray last year. Trae Young should be good enough to keep them in the Play-In range, which will be a low bar this year. The Raptors had a miserable end to their 2023-24 season. When fully healthy, they should have enough top-end talent to grab the 10 seed in the East.
POSITIONAL RANKINGS: PG | SG | SF | PF | C
Western Conference standings, playoff teams
- Oklahoma City Thunder
- Dallas Mavericks
- Minnesota Timberwolves
- Denver Nuggets
- Phoenix Suns
- Memphis Grizzlies
- Sacramento Kings*
- New Orleans Pelicans*
- Golden State Warriors*
- Los Angeles Lakers*
*Play-In Tournament
The Thunder finished with the No. 1 seed last season and got substantially better. Isaiah Hartenstein gives them the big body they’ve been missing and Alex Caruso is the best defensive guard in the league. They’re going to win a lot of games.
The Mavericks should rise from their No. 5 finish. They were a far more competitive team after the trade deadline last year and made even more improvements in the offseason, getting Klay Thompson, Quentin Grimes, Naji Marshall and Spencer Dinwiddie. Those four give Luka Doncic the shooters he was missing.
The Wolves were the other top dog in the West a year ago. Anthony Edwards will continue to improve as he gets more reps facing intense defensive pressure, but they look worse after swapping Towns for Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo.
While the other teams atop the West got better, the Nuggets got worse. Replacing Caldwell-Pope with Christian Braun is a huge downgrade, Russell Westbrook is a weird fit in the lineup and Jamal Murray hasn’t looked like himself for a while. Nikola Jokic will be good enough to win a lot of games, but he showed in previous years that he alone can’t carry Denver to the top of the standings.
The Suns should be better than last year, too. They’ve fixed their point guard issues with Tyus Jones and Monte Morris. Mike Budenholzer is one of the greatest regular season coaches in NBA history. He will get Phoenix to an improved record.
The rest of the West could go in any order. The Grizzlies won 51 games the last time they were relatively healthy. The Pelicans added Dejounte Murray but their season will always hinge on the health of Zion Williamson. The Kings added clutch shooting and dependable offense in DeMar DeRozan. The Warriors’ ensemble of Klay Thompson replacements might be better than he is. JJ Redick isn’t enough to change much from last year’s Lakers Play-In team.
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Eastern Conference champion: Celtics
The Celtics are bringing back the same team that wasn’t really challenged during last year’s championship run. Joe Mazzulla has proven himself as a great coach who keeps getting better. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are still right in their prime. Boston has one of the deepest top-six units in league history.
We never got to see the Knicks take on the Celtics due to the spate of injuries that derailed them. That will be an interesting matchup, but the Celtics dominated them last year, going 4-1. The Knicks aren’t going to be able to hide Brunson and Towns defensively because the Celtics can score from every position.
The Sixers are another premier contender and another team that the Celtics dominated last year, going 3-1 against them. This is a new Philadelphia team with better shot creation, but Boston is capable of throwing so many different looks at Joel Embiid. The Celtics also have good size to guard Embiid, and Paul George can’t guard both Tatum and Brown.
Mazzulla said that the Pacers were the Celtics’ toughest challenger during last year’s playoffs. That may very well be true, but that series was a 4-0 sweep. There is no team on Boston’s level in the East.
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Western Conference champion: Thunder
The Thunder were too young last year and missing one last piece. They have since fixed those problems. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has developed into a two-way force and MVP candidate. He has experience in big games in the Play-In Tournament, the Olympics and now the NBA Playoffs.
Hartenstein gives the Thunder a different way to play and great passing from the center position. Caruso is an NBA champion and has a knack for coming up with big defensive plays in the biggest moments. He can also guard up in position, giving the Thunder two stoppers with Lu Dort in the fold to match up against some of the monster scorers in the West.
Those two will obviously come in handy if the Thunder face off against the Mavericks again. Oklahoma City will have two guys to put on Doncic and Kyrie Irving at the end of games. The Thunder will also have much better shooting than what Josh Giddey, who ended up being a liability, provided.
Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren give the Thunder the ability to play big against some of the massive frontcourts in the West like the Wolves and Nuggets. Holmgren is unique in the way that he can stretch out defenses while providing stellar rim protection. And Hartenstein is a killer offensive rebounder, putting pressure on defensive centers.
Literally driving the Thunder are SGA and Jalen Williams, who should be poised for a better playoffs. Oklahoma City’s offense is so tough to stop because of those two fearlessly attacking the rim. With better shooting around them this season, the Thunder are going to be tough to beat.
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NBA champion: Celtics
The Celtics taking on the Thunder would be a worthy Finals matchup. Two of the youngest and smartest coaches would be battling it out with the deepest rosters in the league. There would be a lot of options on how to play, and it would lead to the best chess match in the league.
The Celtics would have great perimeter defenders in Jrue Holiday and Derrick White to help neutralize Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams. Caruso and Dort can guard Tatum and Brown as well as anyone in the league. Hartenstein is big enough to match up with Porzingis. Holmgren and Al Horford can both stretch the floor.
On paper, these are two evenly matched teams. The experience factor has to play in, though. Brown and Tatum have each played well over 100 playoff games. They know what it takes to win it all. This Thunder team still hasn’t made it out of the second round, and Caruso is the only player with championship experience.
Championship teams generally have to bang their head against the wall a few teams before breaking through. The Thunder are good enough to win. They’d have the best player in the series in Gilgeous-Alexander. But it still feels like they’re a year away from winning it all.
