How the NFL's new head coaches, offensive coordinators will affect 2022 fantasy football drafts

How the NFL's new head coaches, offensive coordinators will affect 2022 fantasy football drafts

The 2022 NFL offseason was a crazy one in terms of head coaching and offensive coordinator changes. A whopping 10 teams will have new head coaches this year, and fantasy football owners are starting to sift through just how those changes will impact positional rankings, potential sleepers, and possible busts as draft day arrive.

Among the new head coaches are familiar faces and retreads like Todd Bowles, Lovie Smith, and Josh McDaniels. Fantasy owners will be able to do plenty of research on these coaches to see how their previous stints might influence the top-tier fantasy contributors on their new teams.

However, there are plenty of first-time coaches, like Nathaniel Hackett, Brian Daboll, and Mike McDaniel, who are, comparatively, wild cards. It is important to look back at their stints as coordinators to see exactly what type of offense each might be looking to run in his new home.

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It’s impossible to know which coaches will fail and which will succeed, but studying their tendencies can provide owners with valuable information that can help to shape their draft strategy. Specifically, looking at run-pass splits will help determine whether a team’s running backs or receivers will have more of an advantage under the new leadership.

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Here’s a preview of some of the new coaches and new offensive coordinators who could impact some of the top fantasy producers. Too see the full list, click here.

Fantasy Football 2022: New NFL head coaches and offensive coordinators

Mike McDaniel, Dolphins HC

McDaniel served as the 49ers’ offensive coordinator for just one season in 2021. Under his watch, San Francisco passed the ball just 51.6 percent of the time, good for the fourth-lowest rate in the NFL.

It’s hardly a surprise that McDaniel prefers running the ball. He spent four years as the 49ers’ run game coordinator from 2017-20 and was working with a strong offensive line in San Francisco. The Dolphins spent a lot of resources in free agency to upgrade their offensive line, so it would seem that McDaniel is looking to bring that run-heavy approach to Miami.

This could be a drastic change for the Dolphins, who ranked 10th in passing-play percentage in ’21 (59.7 percent). That will provide a fantasy stock up for Miami’s running backs Chase Edmonds, Raheem Mostert, Sony Michel, and Myles Gaskin. However, the Dolphins may take a back-by-committee approach again that would limit the upside of each candidate in 2022.

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Brian Daboll, Giants HC

Daboll is a coach that knows how to adjust to his personnel, which is extremely valuable in the NFL.

During his four-year stint with the Bills, Daboll’s play-calling changed as Josh Allen progressed. In Allen’s first two years as the starter, Buffalo ranked 29th and 26th, respectively, in pass-play percentage. As Allen improved the next two years, Daboll and Co. opted to pass the ball more, ranking 11th and 15th, respectively, in pass-play percentage in ’20 and 2021.

Daboll’s willingness to serve as a chameleon of sorts will prove beneficial to the Giants. He can evaluate their talent and see whether a run- or pass-heavy approach works best for the team.

Given the presence of a healthy Saquon Barkley, an improved offensive line, and the struggles of Daniel Jones, one would think that Daboll would lean toward the run-heavy approach in 2022, but his offensive coordinator hire may dictate otherwise.

MORE: Full list of new head coaches and offensive coordinators

Luke Getsy, Bears OC

Defensive-minded Matt Eberflus is the Bears new head coach, but Getsy is going to be tasked with helping Justin Fields to develop after leading Aaron Rodgers to back-to-back MVP campaigns. He will also need to turn what was one of the league’s weakest offenses under Matt Nagy in 2021 into a functioning unit.

How will Getsy do that? The Packers have run a balanced offense in each of the past three seasons — ranking 16th, 22nd and 17th in pass percentage — so he may look to run a similar style in Chicago.

That said, Getsy’s background with the Packers included working with the quarterback and serving as the team’s passing game coordinator in each of the past two seasons. Rodgers had the fourth-quickest release time (2.63 seconds) under Getsy’s watch while averaging 4.1 air yards per attempt. Getsy could replicate that type of quick passing attack with Fields to take some pressure off the second-year quarterback.

Either way, it looks like Fields will be passing more in 2022 than he did in ’21 when he averaged just 25.5 passing attempts per start. That’s why he’s one of our QB sleepers to watch.

2022 AUCTION VALUES (Standard & PPR):
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Doug Pederson, Jaguars HC

Pederson is another member of the Andy Reid coaching tree, and like Kafka, he seems to prefer the passing game.

Pederson’s Eagles ranked top 10 in total pass attempts in four of Pederson’s five seasons with the team. They ranked 13th the only time they didn’t crack the top 10.

While Pederson is a bit more balanced as a play-caller — the Eagles ranked top 10 in rushing attempts three times under him as well — it seems like the Jaguars may lean a bit more on the pass than the run. That could make Trevor Lawrence a solid QB2 sleeper while Christian Kirk may also be more valuable than some realize.

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Todd Bowles, Buccaneers HC

Bowles coached under Bruce Arians for three years with the Bucs (2019-21) and two years with the Cardinals (’13-14), so it seems unlikely that he will shake things up drastically in Tampa Bay.

After all, offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich is staying put for his fourth season in Tampa Bay, and Tom Brady is returning to action for his age-45 season. As such, the Bucs, who were the most pass-heavy teams in the NFL last season (66.46 percent) and have ranked top 10 in passing-play percentage in each of Leftwich’s three years as coordinator, will likely continue to lean heavily on the passing game to carry their squad.

Some may expect a slight regression from Brady and Tampa Bay’s receivers because the Jets routinely ranked below average in pass-play percentage under Bowles’ watch. However, that seems more like a function of the Jets’ mediocre quarterback play, highlighted by Geno Smith and Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Besides, Bowles is a defensive guy. He will let his offensive coordinator call the shots on that side of the ball, so Leftwich and Brady will continue to pass as much as they want in 2022.

To see the rest of the new head coaches and offensive coordinators for 2022, including Broncos’ HC Nathaniel Hackett, Lions’ OC Ben Johnson, Raiders HC Josh McDaniels, and Vikings’ HC Kevin O’Connell, click here.