{"id":76167,"date":"2024-09-08T06:00:11","date_gmt":"2024-09-08T06:00:11","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/guid_108030471"},"modified":"2024-09-08T06:00:11","modified_gmt":"2024-09-08T06:00:11","slug":"u-s-job-market-slows-but-its-not-yet-a-three-alarm-fire-economist-says","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wp.timesamerica.net\/u-s-job-market-slows-but-its-not-yet-a-three-alarm-fire-economist-says\/","title":{"rendered":"U.S. job market slows, but it&#8217;s not yet a &#8216;three-alarm fire,&#8217; economist says"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/wp.timesamerica.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/u-s-job-market-slows-but-its-not-yet-a-three-alarm-fire-economist-says.jpg\" class=\"ff-og-image-inserted\"><\/div>\n<p><span class=\"HighlightShare-hidden\" style=\"top:0;left:0\"><\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"InlineImage-imageEmbed\" id=\"ArticleBody-InlineImage-107425878\" data-test=\"InlineImage\">\n<div class=\"InlineImage-wrapper\">\n<div class=\"InlineImage-imagePlaceholder\" style=\"padding-bottom:55.55555555555556%\">\n<div style=\"height:100%\" class=\"lazyload-placeholder\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"InlineImage-imageEmbedCaption\">A &#8220;Now Hiring&#8221; sign is seen at a FedEx location on Broadway on June 07, 2024 in New York City.<\/div>\n<div class=\"InlineImage-imageEmbedCredit\">Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>The U.S. job market <span class=\"waslinkname\">is cooling<\/span> at a worrisome rate but not to an extent that warrants panic \u2014 at least not yet, according to economists.<\/p>\n<p>Their concern lies with the momentum of key labor-market metrics such as unemployment, job growth and hiring.<\/p>\n<div style=\"height:100%\" class=\"lazyload-placeholder\"><\/div>\n<p>Such barometers, which were <span class=\"waslinkname\">historically strong<\/span> just a year or so ago, have <span class=\"waslinkname\">gradually weakened<\/span> as the Federal Reserve <span class=\"waslinkname\">raised interest rates<\/span> to cool the economy and bring down <span class=\"waslinkname\">inflation<\/span>.<\/p>\n<p><strong>More from Personal Finance:<\/strong><br \/><span class=\"waslinkname\">Unemployment system unprepared for a recession<\/span><br \/><span class=\"waslinkname\">Working 10-to-4 is the new 9-to-5<\/span><br \/><span class=\"waslinkname\">Recession could upend retirement plans<\/span><\/p>\n<p>A recession could result if the labor market keeps throttling back at its current pace, economists said.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;We&#8217;re still on this trajectory that&#8217;s not a three-alarm fire right now,&#8221; said Nick Bunker, economic research director for North America at the job site Indeed.<\/p>\n<p>But if the decline doesn&#8217;t level off soon, he said, <span class=\"waslinkname\">a soft landing for the economy<\/span> may not be in the offing: &#8220;We&#8217;re going to land but it&#8217;s going to land with a crash.&#8221;<\/p>\n<div style=\"height:100%\" class=\"lazyload-placeholder\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h2 class=\"ArticleBody-subtitle\">Why there&#8217;s &#8216;slowing momentum&#8217;<\/h2>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>Employers <span class=\"waslinkname\">added 142,000 jobs<\/span> in August, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday, a figure that was <span class=\"waslinkname\">lower than expected<\/span>.<\/p>\n<p>The good news: That figure is an increase from the 89,000 jobs added in July. The unemployment rate also fell slightly, to 4.2% from 4.3% in July.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<div id=\"RegularArticle-DataWrapperChart\" class=\"DataWrapperChart-dataWrapperContainer\"><iframe title=\"U.S. unemployment rate\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-XNYm2\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/XNYm2\/1\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" height=\"396\" data-external=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>However, several metrics point to &#8220;slowing momentum&#8221; throughout the labor market, said Ernie Tedeschi, director of economics at the Yale Budget Lab and former chief economist of the White House Council of Economic Advisers under the Biden administration.<\/p>\n<p>The current level of job growth and unemployment &#8220;would be fine for the U.S. economy sustained over many months,&#8221; he said. &#8220;Problem is, other data don&#8217;t give us confidence we are going to stay there.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>For example, average <span class=\"waslinkname\">job growth<\/span> was 116,000 over the past three months; the three-month average was 211,000 a year ago. The <span class=\"waslinkname\">unemployment rate<\/span> has also steadily risen, from 3.4% as recently as April 2023.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<div id=\"RegularArticle-DataWrapperChart\" class=\"DataWrapperChart-dataWrapperContainer\"><iframe title=\"Monthly job creation in the U.S.\" aria-label=\"Column Chart\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-eDplv\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/eDplv\/1\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" height=\"454\" data-external=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>Employers are also <span class=\"waslinkname\">hiring<\/span> at their slowest pace since 2014, according to separate Labor Department <span class=\"waslinkname\">data<\/span> issued earlier this week.<\/p>\n<p>Hiring hasn&#8217;t been broad-based, either: Private-sector job growth outside of the health-care and social assistance fields has been &#8220;unusually slow,&#8221; at a roughly 39,000 average over the past three months versus 79,000 over the past year and 137,000 over 2015 to 2019, according to Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter.<\/p>\n<p>Workers are also <span class=\"waslinkname\">quitting<\/span> their jobs at the lowest rate since 2018, while<span class=\"waslinkname\"> job openings<\/span> are at their lowest <span class=\"waslinkname\">since January 2021<\/span>. Quits are a barometer of workers&#8217; confidence in their ability to find a new job.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"Placeholder-ArticleBody-Video-108030330\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>Job-finding among unemployed workers is around 2017 levels and &#8220;continues to drift down,&#8221; Bunker <span class=\"waslinkname\">said<\/span>.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;There&#8217;s a very consistent picture that the strong labor-market momentum we saw in 2022 and 2023 has slowed considerably,&#8221; Tedeschi said.<\/p>\n<p>Overall, data points &#8220;are not necessarily concerning or at recessionary levels yet,&#8221; he added. &#8220;[But] they are softer. They may be preludes to a recession.&#8221;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<h2 class=\"ArticleBody-subtitle\">Why layoff data is a silver lining<\/h2>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>However, there is some room for optimism, economists said.<\/p>\n<p>Permanent layoffs \u2014 which have historically been &#8220;the soothsayer of recessions&#8221; \u2014 haven&#8217;t really budged, Tedeschi said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<div id=\"RegularArticle-DataWrapperChart\" class=\"DataWrapperChart-dataWrapperContainer\"><iframe title=\"Unemployment rates for Black, Hispanic and white workers by sex\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-MuPsk\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/MuPsk\/1\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" height=\"554\" data-external=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>Federal data for <span class=\"waslinkname\">unemployment insurance claims<\/span> and the <span class=\"waslinkname\">rate of layoffs<\/span> suggest employers are holding on to their workers, for example.<\/p>\n<p>The recent gradual rise in unemployment is <span class=\"waslinkname\">largely not attributable<\/span> to layoffs, economists said. It has been for a &#8220;good&#8221; reason: a large increase in labor supply. In other words, many more Americans entered the job market and looked for work; they&#8217;re counted as unemployed until they find a job.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<div id=\"RegularArticle-DataWrapperChart\" class=\"DataWrapperChart-dataWrapperContainer\"><iframe title=\"Labor force participation rates in the U.S. by race and ethnicity\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-fWJfI\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/fWJfI\/1\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" height=\"567\" data-external=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>&#8220;Once we start seeing layoffs, the game is over and we are in a recession,&#8221; Tedeschi said. &#8220;And that has not happened at all.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>That said, the job hunt has become more challenging for job seekers than in the recent past, according to Bunker.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<h2 class=\"ArticleBody-subtitle\">Relief from the Fed won&#8217;t come quickly<\/h2>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>Federal Reserve officials are expected to start cutting interest rates at their upcoming meeting this month, which would take pressure off the economy.<\/p>\n<p>Lower borrowing costs may spur consumers to buy homes and cars, for example, and for businesses to make more investments and hire more workers accordingly.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"height:400px\" class=\"lazyload-placeholder\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>That relief likely wouldn&#8217;t be instantaneous but would probably take many months to wind through the economy, economists said.<\/p>\n<p>Overall, though, the current picture is &#8220;still consistent with an economy experiencing a soft landing rather than plummeting into recession,&#8221; Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note Friday.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"ArticleBody-MobileAdhesion\" class=\"MobileAdhesion-container\" data-module=\"mps-slot\"><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A &#8220;Now Hiring&#8221; sign is seen at a FedEx location on Broadway on June 07, 2024 in New York City. Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images The U.S. job market is cooling at a worrisome rate but not to an extent that warrants panic \u2014 at least not yet, according to economists. Their concern lies &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-76167","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bussiness","no-thumb","no-post-featured"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/wp.timesamerica.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76167"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/wp.timesamerica.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/wp.timesamerica.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wp.timesamerica.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wp.timesamerica.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=76167"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/wp.timesamerica.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76167\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/wp.timesamerica.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=76167"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wp.timesamerica.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=76167"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wp.timesamerica.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=76167"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}