Heading into fantasy football drafts, the goal should be to find consistent studs in the early rounds, while pairing them with breakout players in the later rounds. Avoiding the early-round landmines and picking out the gems from the late rounds is a surefire way to build a team that can compete for a championship.
DOMINATE YOUR DRAFT: 2024 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet
The quickest way to derail a fantasy season is by stepping on those landmines, particularly in the first few rounds. Austin Ekeler drafters last year know this all too well.
The fantasy community is overvaluing a number of players heading into the 2024 season, some to a greater degree than others. At the end of the day, these 10 players should be avoided at their current cost.
2024 PPR Rankings
Top 250 Overall | QB | RB | WR | TE | DEF/ST | K
Who are the biggest fantasy football busts for 2024?
The definition of “bust” is rather subjective. But these 10 players have a good chance of failing to meet expectations relative to ADP. Drafters should consider fading James Cook, Sam LaPorta, Tua Tagovailoa, Jayden Reed, Nick Chubb, and others.
James Cook, RB, Buffalo Bills
Fading James Cook doesn’t require much hard-hitting analysis or deep thought. A running back who isn’t used at the goal line and isn’t heavily used as a receiver, but is still being drafted as a fringe RB1 (RB13) is an easy player to avoid.
Cook finished as the RB12 last season but was just the RB19 on a per-game basis. Considering his role that lacks valuable touches (targets and goal line work), this may be close to his ceiling outcome.
Last season, Cook saw 54 targets which ranked 19th among running backs. This is respectable usage but does not exactly set him apart as a running back who is known as a pass catcher. In terms of his goal line role, the Bills were looking to give the ball to anyone other than Cook when they approached the endzone.
Cook finished the year with just four goal line carries. Meanwhile, Latavius Murray saw 12 and Josh Allen had 14. Cook ended up in the endzone six times last season. But he found paydirt on the ground just twice. In games where he failed to score, he averaged just 9.9 fantasy points.
Cook’s limited role requires supreme efficiency to be a high-end fantasy option. He is capable of meeting ADP expectations with another highly efficient season, but the most likely outcome is that he fails to pay off at cost.
2024 FANTASY SLEEPERS
QB | RB | WR | TE | Each Team
Sam LaPorta, TE, Detroit Lions
Sam LaPorta was quite impressive as a rookie. He boasted a stat line of 86/889/10 en route to a TE1 season. LaPorta was the first tight end outside of Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews to finish as the TE1 since 2015. As a rookie, this is an incredible feat.
But drafters are a bit too bullish on LaPorta heading into year two, selecting him at the end of the second round. It is reasonable to select him as the first tight end in drafts, but he should be clustered far closer to the other elite tight end options.
LaPorta ascended into the elite tier of tight ends, but he does not provide the positional advantage that Kelce and Andrews did in recent years. It’s almost as if drafters automatically assume that the previous year’s TE1 should be taken in Round 2 or earlier.
| Historical TE1 Seasons | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | TE1 | Total Points (PPR) | PPG | Following Year ADP |
| 2023 | Sam LaPorta | 239.3 | 14.1 | 2.10 |
| 2022 | Travis Kelce | 316.3 | 18.6 | 1.06 |
| 2021 | Mark Andrews | 301.1 | 17.7 | 3.02 |
| 2020 | Travis Kelce | 312.8 | 20.9 | 1.07 |
| 2019 | Travis Kelce | 254.3 | 15.9 | 2.08 |
| 2018 | Travis Kelce | 294.6 | 18.4 | 2.05 |
| 2017 | Travis Kelce | 233.5 | 15.6 | 3.04 |
LaPorta’s per-game production is a clear step down from previous TE1 seasons. Yet, he is being drafted in a similar range to historical top tight ends, aside from Kelce following his most dominant seasons.
Some may argue that LaPorta has room to grow in his second season. However, it wouldn’t be shocking if his fantasy production regresses. LaPorta’s fantasy output was carried by touchdown numbers. His 10 touchdowns far exceeded expectations based on his usage and will be difficult to reproduce in year two. Double-digit touchdown seasons are hard to come by for tight ends.
This was a cool comment that I decided to do some research on
A list of TEs who have scored 10 TDs in a season since 2015:
LaPorta
Kelce (4 Times)
Kittle
Tonyan
Andrews
Ebron
Graham
Eifert
Gronk
ReedExpecting 10 TDs isnโt a great idea https://t.co/dabG9RsfSu
โ FF Mike Kash (@FFMikeKash) April 3, 2024
The presence of target hog Amon-Ra St. Brown and emerging receiving talents Jameson Williams and Jahmyr Gibbs make it difficult to project growth in LaPorta’s overall target volume as well. All things considered, it’s easy to pass on LaPorta in Round 2 when another elite option can be selected 20 picks later.
2024 POSITION TIERS & DRAFT STRATEGY
QB | RB | WR | TE | D/ST
Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins
Each season, it always seems to be a tale of two halves for Tua Tagovailoa. Through six weeks it seems that he’s an MVP candidate before his production tapers off in the second half of the year.
Despite slowing down after Week 11, Tagovailoa still had a career year in 2023. He posted career highs in passing yards, passing touchdowns, completion percentage, among others. He actually led the league in passing yards with 4,624.
As the league’s top passer, Tagovailoa was just the QB16 in points per game. Sure, it’s possible for him to push for 5,000 yards and tack on a few more passing touchdowns. But given his lack of rushing production, his fantasy ceiling is likely capped at a low-end QB1 finish.
Tagovailoa’s current ADP slots him in one pick ahead of Jayden Daniels. The limited upside of Tagovailoa is easy to pass on in this situation. He is set up to let drafters down this season.
Jayden Reed, WR, Green Bay Packers
Jayden Reed was an exciting talent, and he will undoubtedly deliver several highlight reel plays this season. But his situation and role in the Packers’ offense make him a tough pick to stomach as a WR3.
Injury-plagued teams often struggle to succeed. For the Packers, injuries to their receiving corps allowed them to “discover” four starting-caliber receivers on the roster. Because of this, the Packers’ pass catchers are often rotated. Reed is not excluded from this.
Reed’s “rotation” is simply not playing in 2 WR sets. He played just three snaps in 2 WR sets last year. Given the returning talent in Green Bay, it would not be shocking to see Reed relegated to this role once again. This role resulted in a sub-60 percent snap share. This isn’t ideal for a receiver who is drafted as a starter in many leagues.
Reed would require elite efficiency to overcome his part-time role. When all four of Green Bay’s receivers were on the field last year, his efficiency was rather pedestrian. Unless Matt LaFleur dramatically adjusts how he deploys his receivers, Reed will have a hard time beating his ADP.
2024 FANTASY AUCTION VALUES (PPR & STANDARD)
Overall | QB | RB | WR | TE | DEF/ST | K
Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns
One of the league’s best running backs is facing a fair amount of adversity heading into this year. Nick Chubb’s season came to an abrupt end in 2023 after he suffered a gruesome knee injury in Week 2. The road to recovery has been long, but Chubb is expected to take the field at some point in 2024.
Chubb is currently drafted at the end of Round 7, an absolutely egregious price. First, there is simply Chubb’s timeline for recovery. The Browns have not provided exact dates, but fantasy analysts with a medical background currently project a midseason return.
#Bengals Joe Burrow – Cleared for throwing. Taking days off = common post-injury to avoid overuse (tendinitis). Data favors strong comeback#Browns Nick Chubb – Just introduced lateral motion. Strong indicator of progress. But comments suggest likely out until ~Wk 6-8
3/10
โ Deepak Chona, MD. SportsMedAnalytics (@SportMDAnalysis) July 28, 2024
Even when Chubb eventually returns, there is no knowing what form he’ll be in. Multi-ligament knee tears have been known to rob running backs of their efficiency and overall effectiveness. Those who drafted Javonte Williams last year know this all too well after they were treated to a player who looked like a shell of his former self.
For a player who has relied on high-end efficiency to provide value in fantasy football, this is an incredibly risky bet. When the bet has to be placed in Round 7, it becomes a no-brainer to fade Chubb.
Fantasy football 2024 busts: Overvalued players
These players are not as large of a concern when it comes to being a full-blown bust, but their paths to paying off at cost are murky. Drafters should be hesitant when drafting these five players.
Saquon Barkley, RB, Philadelphia Eagles: Both Jalen Hurts and offensive coordinator Kellen Moore shy away from using running backs as pass catchers. Combined with concerns about the Tush Push, Saquon Barkley could be robbed of the incredibly valuable touches that allow the elite running backs to rack up fantasy points.
George Pickens, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers: Arthur Smith’s archaic run-first scheme makes it incredibly difficult for wide receivers to score fantasy points due to low volume. During Smith’s three years in Atlanta, the WR1 never finished higher than WR31.
T.J. Hockenson, TE, Minnesota Vikings: Like Chubb, T.J. Hockenson is rehabbing from a multi-ligament injury, which should have him back late into the fantasy regular season. Additionally, Hockenson could potentially see reduced production thanks to the injury or regression within the Minnesota offense.
Brock Purdy, QB, San Francisco 49ers: Brock Purdy is coming off one of the most efficient quarterback seasons of all time. His 9.6 yards per attempt was the highest mark of any quarterback with at least 350 attempts. Asking him to recreate this kind of season is a tall order.
Keenan Allen, WR, Chicago Bears: Keenan Allen benefitted from a lack of target competition and his “power slot” role in Kellen Moore’s offense. In a new offense with incredibly strong receivers beside him, Allen could realistically fall off the age cliff.
