Fire James Franklin? Youโre kidding, right?
Penn State is currently ranked No. 6 in the Associated Press poll and the first College Football Playoff rankings. It is favored to win its final four games and finish 11-1. The Nittany Lions will likely receive a home game in the first round of the first 12-team playoff.
Franklin’s squad lost by seven points to the No. 2 team in the nation Saturday. The game went down to the wire, and Penn State came up short. There were a handful of plays that decided the game, including this one, an Ohio State interception in the end zone where the ball essentially deflected right into the chest and arms of Davison Igbinosun. Good play? Yes. Lucky? Yes. Game-changing? Yes.
Davison Igbinosun went from getting a stiff arm to the face to making one of the most wild interceptions of the season ๐คฏ@ohiostatefb pic.twitter.com/FxTeR8v9Td
โ FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) November 2, 2024
For all the wailing about how Franklin canโt win the big one and he needs to figure it out against other CFB blue bloods, Penn State fans need to realize they are one bad coach away from mediocrity. History tells us this. Look at Florida. Look at Notre Dame. Look at Florida State. Look at Michigan. Go back over the last 25 years and see how many coaches have driven those programs into temporary mediocrity or worse. Penn State is not recession-proof.
Franklin has built that program into one that finishes in the Top 10 more often than it doesnโt. If the Lions hold the line this year, that will be five in nine years. That is good. No, check that. That is great. Hereโs the list of teams that can make that claim: Ohio State, Georgia, Alabama, Clemson, Oklahoma. Pretty good company to keep.
BENDER: Breaking down the CFP bubble after first rankings
The goal is the national title. That is also such an elusive goal, there are only three active coaches that have one. You just have to keep putting yourself in position, and hope one year the breaks go your way. Franklin is doing the first half. The vast majority of coaches are not.
Which brings us to coaches who should actually be on the hot seat. With the calendar turning to November, we still haven’t seen a Power 4 coach fired in-season. And we probably won’t – until the season finally ends for the following embattled HCs.
MORE: Picks against the spread for Week 11’s Top 25 games
College Football Hot Seats
It just means more
Billy Napier, Florida: The Gators enter the death stretch of their 2024 schedule potentially with a third-string, walk-on QB who redshirted at Yale last season. DJ Lagway is questionable with a hamstring injury suffered in the second quarter against Georgia. Is it fair to judge Napier given those circumstances, especially when the team has made visible progress after the heat became almost unbearable after the Miami loss to open the season?
Facts and figures: Napier is in his third season and is 15-18 (8-13 SEC) and will presumably miss a bowl for the second straight season unless Florida pulls an upset. He took over a seven-loss team, but is staring at a third straight seven-loss season if he loses to Texas, Ole Miss and LSU. He has also dealt with the embarrassment of being a plaintiff in the Jaden Rashada failed NIL lawsuit. Collectively, that isn’t going to be survivable.
Mark Stoops, Kentucky: Stoops was almost hired by Texas A&M last season before a rumored Aggie booster revolt caused Stoops to announce he was staying at Kentucky. He is the longest-tenured SEC coach, but this season is headed for a 4-8, 1-7 finish after back-to-back 7-6 finishes. Things feel stale and are trending down.
Facts and figures: Stoops is in his 12th season and is 76-71 with eight bowl trips. He has finished over .500 in league play just twice when he went 10-3 in 2018 and 2021. He is 8-19 in his last 27 SEC games with Texas on deck.
Hugh Freeze, Auburn: Freeze is only in his second season, but life on the Plains have not improved since he replaced the miscast Brian Harsin. Harsin went 9-12 before getting the boot. Freeze is 9-13 after last weekโs 17-7 loss to Vanderbilt. Despite that, Auburnโs recruiting has been very strong, something Harsin could never point to. The Tigersโ 2025 class is ranked No. 5 by 247Sports.
Facts and figures: Freeze is 4-10 in the SEC with Texas A&M and Alabama still on the docket. Unfriendly fact for Freeze โ the last two Auburn coaches to lose to Vanderbilt (Tommy Tuberville, Gene Chizik) were fired at the end of that season.
Buyout buys time
Mike Norvell, Florida State: According to On3.com, if Florida State fires Norvell this season, he will be owed roughly $63 million. His contract calls for him to be paid $875,000 per month through 2031 if he is let go after this season. For a school suing the ACC because it doesnโt not have enough money, thatโs a tough look. And yet โฆ a two-win season is a two-win season (Charleston Southern will be the second win), which is not acceptable at a place that sees itself as a perennial national title contender. The facts might say otherwise — FSU has more than seven wins just twice in eight years — but Seminoles boosters are loud, proud and impatient, and the whiplash from 13-1 to 1-8 has some folks running those cost/benefit analysis exercises.
Facts and figures: Norvell is 32-25 (20-20 ACC) with two bowl games in five seasons.
Lincoln Riley, USC: ESPNโs Pete Thamel reported Lincoln Rileyโs buyout at USC is โright around $90 millionโ on the College GameDay podcast in October. Thatโs almost 50 percent higher than Norvellโs, which is mind-blowing itself. So the fact that USC is on the bowl bubble and not the College Football Playoff bubble doesnโt mean Rileyโs seat is Southern California pavement in July hot. But folks are getting restless. You canโt stack two disappointing seasons on top of each other when your paycheck has that many zeros. USC is not a program that needs 3-4 years to be rebuilt, especially with the splash Riley made in the transfer portal when he was hired. Immediate results were expected, and while Year 1 was good (11-3, No. 12), Years 2 and 3 were steps backward.
Facts and figures: Riley is 23-13 overall and 6-10 in his last 16 games. Heโs 4-9 against Top 25 teams since arriving from Oklahoma.
Need a good finish
Neal Brown, West Virginia: The man played himself off the hot seat last season with a surprising 9-4 season that raised hopes for 2024. The Mountaineers are a solid 4-4, but a slow finish that leads to an under .500 record would be Brownโs fourth losing season in six years.
Dave Aranda, Baylor: This was a make-or-break year for Aranda at Baylor after going 6-7 and 3-9 the last two years. Things were looking shaky after a 2-4 start, but the Bears have ripped off three straight wins. If Baylor gets to a bowl game at 7-5, he should be OK.
Sam Pittman, Arkansas: Arkansas brought in Bobby Petrino as offensive coordinator, and many assumed he was ready to assume interim head coach duties if there was an in-season move on Pittman. Coming off a 4-8 season, the Hogs have been respectable at 5-4 and 3-3 in the SEC. It would be wise to finish over .500, however.
